Published on 2025-01-13
Il futuro della Tv nel 2025
Once a universal and pervasive medium in the analog era, the television industry is undergoing a profound digital transformation affecting all sectors of the economy and society.
The crucial question is whether traditional communication and consumption models can still find a place in the emerging digital ecosystem or if television’s role is destined to diminish.
2025 Report
The 17th ITMedia Consulting Report, titled “The TV Market in Italy 2023-2025. Of Tomorrow, There is No Certainty”, highlights this transition. It emphasizes that the future of television can no longer be confined to traditional linear TV but must include the growing phenomenon of video streaming and on-demand services.
By 2025, broadband TV is expected to reach 13.2 million households, surpassing half of Italian households with a television. Pay-TV will consolidate its leadership over free-to-air TV, rising from 59% in 2023 to 61% of all TV households by 2025.
The television market is expected to remain stable between 2023 and 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 0.5%, more marked in 2025.
Advertising will grow slightly (+0.9%) thanks to online contributions offsetting declines in TV advertising (generalist and thematic channels). Pay-TV is also expected to see a similar increase (+0.9%), being now mature and including the paid video streaming component (SVoD).
In 2025, Sky, Mediaset, and Rai will collectively hold 70% of the total TV market, maintaining a dominant position, while other operators will account for 30%.
Sky will continue its decline (-2.6%), though at a slower pace than recently, losing leadership to Rai (27%) and being caught up by Mediaset, which will remain stable or experience slight growth due to investments in online advertising and a hybrid DTT/broadband model.
Mediaset Grows!
In advertising, Mediaset, with slight growth, will remain the leading operator, capturing 58% of total resources, two percentage points higher than in 2022. In the pay-TV sector, Sky will maintain leadership despite further market share decline, from 50% in 2022 to 43% in 2025, due to the shift of paid services to streaming dominated by global operators.
Other operators (Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Discovery, etc.) will no longer grow at double-digit rates as before, slowing their expansion (CAGR +4.7%). In this context, a new trend emerges: advertising is growing faster than pay-TV.
Two New Trends
Two significant trends are emerging: on one hand, the development of connected TV and online advertising linked to hybrid business models; on the other, the growing presence of video-sharing platforms (like YouTube and TikTok) in the digital ecosystem, offering personalized content through generative artificial intelligence. Considering their target audiences, these platforms are powerful influencer marketing tools, attracting a significant share of online advertising resources.
Furthermore, the video gaming sector, along with online advertising, has recorded the highest growth rates in the entire entertainment and media industry. Video games increasingly resemble audiovisual content production, also in terms of user perception, consuming them in similar ways.
Amid these epochal changes, the only certainty emerging from the ITMedia Consulting Report is that the industry is about to enter one of the most delicate and uncertain phases in its history.